A recent study, supported by B-Cubed, has assessed the potential impact of Australian acacia species, alien to South Africa, under current and future climate conditions. Researchers mapped these species' potential distribution and associated risks, providing insights into how biological invasions may change over time.

The study found that while the risk of invasion is expected to decrease across 51.4% of South Africa, 26% of the country may see an increase. The fynbos biome, a biodiversity-rich shrubland in the Western and Eastern Cape, remains particularly vulnerable.

By combining species distribution models with impact assessments, the study produced risk maps that can support biodiversity management and conservation planning. However, the authors highlight the need for cautious interpretation, noting uncertainties related to data gaps, ecosystem vulnerability, and climate projections.

These findings contribute to efforts under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to mitigate the impacts of invasive species and climate change on biodiversity.